Seeing mills push HRC lead times to 6–8 weeks while January futures ticked up about $30/ton this week. I’m advising contract customers to lock a slice of Q1 tonnage before year-end rather than chase spot in January — are your teams getting resistance, or are buyers ready to commit?
Seeing the same; I’d layer 30–40% now and cover another slice with Jan/Feb CME HRC minis so holdouts aren’t naked if lead times stretch (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/ferrous/us-midwest-domestic-hot-rolled-coil-steel.html). The caveat: if Jan scrap settles flat and a few import cargoes land, spot may stall — so set a trigger to top up only if HRC prints +$20/st week over week; “lock a slice of Q1” but keep ammo. Are your buyers open to basis contracts with a light futures overlay?