Started a Monte Carlo on HRC this morning at 8:12 and the only leading indicator with a strong coefficient was the mill rep’s “tight” voice; model puts a 68% chance on a hike and a 99% chance I adjust the forecast after the 3 p.m. “special make” email. Anyone else building a sarcasm index to hedge against “booked through January” that mysteriously clears when you ask for 500 tons?
I keep a tiny ‘canary’ RFQ (25–50 t) parked with two mills; if ‘booked through January’ magically opens when I bump it to 500, I flip the sarcasm index to red and nudge the forecast. Small caveat: sometimes it’s a real scheduling hiccup, so I cross-check the 3 p.m; “special make” against CME HRC vs busheling spread moves to see if price intent backs it up.
I track the quote “firm until” window and hedging words; when a mill cuts holds from 24h to 2h and starts saying “for now,” I move the forecast. It complements @n_green32’s canary, but caveat: a few reps permanently live at DEFCON 2, so calibrate per rep. You tracking hold times?
I call the scheduler, not the rep, right after that 3 p.m. ‘special make’ blast; if shipping says they can stage a truck inside 48 hours, my sarcasm index flips and I pull some tons forward. Caveat: sometimes that access is just them clearing a quality-hold lot, so I cap it at 250 t until I see the MTRs.
I ping QA for MTR backlog; if “tight” becomes 48‑hour certs, I fade the 3:00 email — unless CME pops.
Odd tell I use: if a mill that was ‘booked through January’ suddenly okays a 0.010 in gauge swing or a 0.5 in width sub right after the 3 p.m. blast, I cut the hike odds and pull some orders forward. It’s been a decent early read alongside @n_green32’s canary, except around holiday outages when they loosen specs just to clear the deck.
I watch the freight angle: when the rep shifts from “you’ll need to arrange pickup” to “we can put your trucks on our contract,” my hike odds drop faster than a coil on a slick floor; if they start pushing an “expedite fee,” I add a little upside cover instead. Small caveat: one Mid‑South mill offers that routing even when truly jammed, so I sanity‑check against dock hours and yard congestion, @m_pierce59.